Guiding Douglas-fir seed selection in Europe under changing climates: bioclimatic envelope model predictions versus growth observed in provenance trials

Abstract

Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco) is one of the most ecologically and economically important tree species in both its native range in North America and in its introduced range in Europe. The aim of this research is to inform the European Douglas-fir reforestation strategy under changing climates. This was done by 1) synthesizing results from a wealth of provenance experiments that have never been analyzed in a comprehensive manner, 2) by showing that a bioclimatic envelope model developed for North America was generally capable of predicting the observed provenance performance in diverse planting sites, and 3), using the model to map suitable populations for planting under climate change scenarios. The practical recommendations can be used as a decision-making tool to help European forest professionals target well-suited populations to ensure continued forest health and productivity.