Modelling Market Impacts of Geographic Dispersion of Wind Energy in Alberta

Abstract

This thesis presents a methodology to simulate the energy production from hypothetical wind farms in Alberta in order to examine potential future market impacts of a geographically dispersed wind fleet in Alberta. The wind farms’ output is simulated using the Canadian Wind Atlas (CWA) Modelled Historical data (HMD), a publicly available hourly Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and calibrated to historic output from existing wind farms in the province to determine if the data available from the CWA (hourly wind speeds, temperature, and air density), were sufficient to simulate new wind farms in Alberta. A generic loss coefficient was empirically calculated to estimate power output from a wind farm compared to the manufacturer’s power curve at simulated wind speeds from the CWA. By comparing modelled wind farm performance to historical market data from wind farms operating in Alberta, it was found that the CWA tends to underestimate wind speeds from 7:00 am until noon for the spring months, as well as misrepresenting wind speeds for the southwest region of the province (near communities with existing wind farms in Pincher Creek and Fort Macleod). Outside of the southwest of the province, the simulated wind farm’s annual energy production, using the data from the CWA HMD, was within a percentage error between 1% to 10% for wind farms that operated over the same timeframe. By applying this methodology to regions of the province without existing wind farms, the output of new hypothetical wind farms was created in different locations in Alberta. The output of hypothetical wind farms allowed for market impacts simulations of new wind farms in Alberta using the Aurora market model from Energy Exemplar. Preliminary results from Aurora’s model simulation shows that increases in wind energy development will lower market prices during periods of high wind as would be expected. This work enables future analysis examining the potential market changes of a more geographically diverse wind fleet in the province.