The Signature of Endemic Populations in the Spread of Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks
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Koch, D., Lewis, M.A., Lele, S. 2021. The signature of endemic populations in the spread of mountain pine beetle outbreaks. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 83(6): 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-021-00899-z
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The mountain pine beetle (MPB) is among the most destructive eruptive forest pests in
North America. A recent increase in the frequency and severity of outbreaks, combined
with an eastward range expansion towards untouched boreal pine forests, has spurred
a great interest by government, industry and academia into the population ecology of
this tree-killing bark beetle. Modern approaches to studying the spread of the MPB
often involve the analysis of large-scale, high-resolution datasets on landscape-level
damage to pine forests. This creates a need for new modelling tools to handle the
unique challenges associated with large sample sizes and spatial effects. In two companion papers (Koch et al. in Environ Ecol Stat. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-020-
00456-2, 2020a; J R Soc Interface 17(170):20200434, 2020b), we explain how the
computational challenges of dispersal and spatial autocorrelation can be addressed
using separable kernels. In this paper, we use these ideas to capture nonstationary
patterns in the dispersal flights of MPB. This facilitates a landscape-level inference
of subtle properties of MPB attack behaviour based on aerial surveys of killed pine.
Using this model, we estimate the size of the cryptic endemic MPB population, which
formerly has been measurable only by means of costly and time-intensive ground
surveys.
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http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 http://purl.org/coar/version/c_b1a7d7d4d402bcce http://purl.org/coar/version/c_71e4c1898caa6e32
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