Examining Historical Climate with Respect to Future Permafrost and Engineering Design: An Analysis of Common Assumptions and Calculations

Abstract

This paper examines changes in climate with respect to permafrost and engineering design in Arctic regions. Current understanding of climate changes, predictive modeling, and climate data were studied. Inconsistencies and differences were noted, discussed, and evaluated using comparisons of the resulting climate data and graphs. A graphical analysis was done to compare different methods of data analysis and different visual interpretations of historical climate trends. The graphical analyses in this paper should be used as a guide for determining the accuracy of thermal design parameters applied to current project designs. The methodology used to evaluate raw data can greatly affect the output values used in design. It is important to understand the affect of different methods of evaluation. Review of this examination will provide designers and planners a better understanding of the complexity of climate data, data trends, and factors considered when applying climate variables to arctic design.