Matrix methods for stochastic dynamic programming in ecology and evolutionary biology
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1. Organisms are constantly making tradeoffs. These tradeoffs may be behavioural (e.g.,
whether to focus on foraging or predator avoidance) or physiological (e.g., whether to
allocate energy to reproduction or growth). Similarly, wildlife and fisheries managers must
make tradeoffs while striving for conservation or economic goals (e.g., costs versus rewards).
Stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) provides a powerful and flexible framework within
which to explore these tradeoffs. A rich body of mathematical results on SDP exist but have
received little attention in ecology and evolution.
2. Using directed graphs—an intuitive visual model representation—we reformulated
SDP models into matrix form. We synthesized relevant existing theoretical results which we
then applied to two canonical SDP models in ecology and evolution. We applied these matrix
methods to a simple illustrative patch choice example and an existing SDP model of
parasitoid wasp behaviour.
3. The proposed analytical matrix methods provide the same results as standard numerical
methods as well as additional insights into the nature and quantity of other, nearly optimal,
strategies, which we may also expect to observe in nature. The mathematical results
highlighted in this work also explain qualitative aspects of model convergence. An added
benefit of the proposed matrix notation is the resulting ease of implementation of Markov
chain analysis (an exact solution for the realized states of an individual) rather than Monte
Carlo simulations (the standard, approximate method). It also provides an independent
validation method for other numerical methods, even in applications focused on short-term,
non-stationary dynamics.
4. These methods are useful for obtaining, interpreting, and further analysing model
convergence to the optimal time-independent (i.e., stationary) decisions predicted by an SDP
model. SDP is a powerful tool both for theoretical and applied ecology, and an understanding
of the mathematical structure underlying SDP models can increase our ability to apply and
interpret these models.
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http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 http://purl.org/coar/version/c_b1a7d7d4d402bcce http://purl.org/coar/version/c_71e4c1898caa6e32
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