A dynamic water balance model for drought management: A case study of the Invitational Drought Tournament

Abstract

System dynamics modelling provides an effective approach for water management, as shown in this thesis, using Agriculture Canada’s Invitational Drought Tournament (IDT) as a case study. The objectives of the research are to simulate basin-scale management of the fictitious Western Canadian “Oxbow Basin” and to obtain the responses of several environmental and socio-economic sub-systems to different drought management policies. The model represents five major sub-systems: population, municipal water use, agricultural water use and crop production, land use and water supply. Model use for an Invitational Drought Tournament adequately represented the basin-scale water use system of the Oxbow Basin and the broader consequences of drought policies, according to feedback from Agriculture Canada and student teams. Model development also helped to identify strengths and limitations of system dynamics models, as applied to basin-scale management. The IDT model was found to be a valuable tool for studying and simulating water management.