Developing a kinetic model for hydroconversion processing of vacuum residue

Abstract

One of heavy oils upgrading processes is hydroconversion. As it is a complex process involving many chemical reactions, the mathematical model of hydroconversion process often has more kinetic parameters than can be estimated from the data. In this thesis, a model for hydroconversion processing of vacuum residue is proposed. It is proved that the model is structurally identifiable, but shown that it is inestimable and good parameter estimates may be impossible to obtain even if the model fit is good. As a proof to the model inestimability, it is shown that literature data can be fitted using a subset of only three (of seven) parameters. To improve parameter estimability, a method is proposed for designing additional experiments. The method is based on designing experiments that provide data that is complementary (in an appropriate sense) to existing data. The approach is illustrated using the hydroconversion model. For the hydroconversion model, using two additional experiments provides a good balance between parameter estimation and experimental effort.