Mountain pine beetle outbreak duration and pine mortality depend on direct control effort

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dc.contributor.authorMélodie Kunegel-Lion
dc.contributor.authorMark A. Lewis
dc.date.accessioned2025-05-01T22:21:20Z
dc.date.available2025-05-01T22:21:20Z
dc.date.issued2020-01-19
dc.descriptionThe efficacy of direct control methods in bark beetle outbreaks is a disputed topic. While some studies report that control reduces tree mortality, others see little effect. Existing models, linking control rate to beetle population dynamics and tree infestations, give insights, but there is a need to take into account the environment spatial variability and its impact on beetle life cycle. Here, we use natural variability found in a carefully monitored and controlled infestation to simulate outbreak dynamics under different control effort and to explore the impact of control on outbreaks suppression and tree mortality. Our semi-empirical predictive model of the number of infested trees as a function of ecological and environmental variables is coupled to a simulation model for infestation dynamics. We show that even a little control can have a major impact on the number of infested trees after several years of sustained effort. However, a moderate control of 60% is required to reduce the beetle population on the long term. Furthermore, a control rate of 69%–83% is needed to achieve outbreak suppression in under 13 years depending on the abundance of incoming flights from outside sources.
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.7939/r3-xcq3-pw71
dc.language.isoen
dc.relation.isversionofKunegel-Lion, M., Lewis, M.A. 2020. Mountain pine beetle outbreak duration and pine mortality depend on direct control effort. Journal of Environmental Management 260: 110167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110167
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
dc.subjectInsect epidemics
dc.subjectPopulation modelling
dc.subjectSimulations
dc.subjectDirect control
dc.subjectPest management
dc.titleMountain pine beetle outbreak duration and pine mortality depend on direct control effort
dc.typehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 http://purl.org/coar/version/c_b1a7d7d4d402bcce http://purl.org/coar/version/c_71e4c1898caa6e32
ual.jupiterAccesshttp://terms.library.ualberta.ca/public

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