Factors governing outbreak dynamics in a forest intensively managed for mountain pine beetle
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Kunegel-Lion, M., Lewis, M.A. 2020b. Factors governing outbreak dynamics in a forest intensively managed for mountain pine beetle. Scientific Reports 10(1): 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-63388-8
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Mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks have caused major economic losses and ecological consequences
in North American pine forests. Ecological and environmental factors impacting MPB life-history and
stands susceptibility can help with the detection of MPB infested trees and thereby, improve control.
Temperatures, water stress, host characteristics, and beetle pressure are among those ecological and
environmental factors. They play diferent roles on MPB population dynamics at the various stages
of an outbreak and these roles can be afected by intensive management. However, to make detailed
connections between ecological and environmental variables and MPB outbreak phases, a deeper
quantitative analysis on local scales is needed. Here, we used logistic regressions on a highly-detailed
and georeferenced data set to determine the factors driving MPB infestations for the diferent phases
of the current isolated MPB outbreak in Cypress Hills. While we showed that the roles of ecological
and environmental factors in a forest intensively controlled for MPB are consistent with the literature
for uncontrolled forests, we determined how these factors shifted through onset, peak, and collapse
phases of the intensively controlled forest. MPB presence mostly depends on nearby beetle pressure,
notably for the outbreak peak. However additional weather and host variables are necessary to achieve
high predictive ability for MPB outbreak locations. Our results can help managers make appropriate
decisions on where and how to focus their efort, depending on which phase the outbreak is in.
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http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
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en